Zach Wamp and the race for governor

I have known Zach Wamp for almost half of my life, and while I have had little contact with him since moving from Chattanooga in 1995, nonetheless I am not surprised that he became an effective member of Congress. In fact, after his election in 1994, I predicted that he would handily win elections until he chose to do something else.

In my thinking, that “something else” always was running for the U.S. Senate, not governor of Tennessee. It generally is a more natural move to go from a U.S. Representative to the Senate, although in 1994, Don Sundquist made the move that Wamp wants to do, winning the gubernatorial election and defeating current Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen in the process.

But, here we are just weeks away from the primaries, and next month, voters will decide if the Republican nominee will be Wamp or Bill Haslam, mayor of Knoxville. My sense is that the real election is the Republican primary, and whoever wins is going to be the next governor.

Obviously, Haslam will outspend Zach, although I think that Wamp has done an impressive job of raising money, and certainly his campaign is not broke. Nonetheless, it is hard to win elections when one’s opponent has deeper pockets, and I think that Zach knew this would be an uphill fight no matter what.

Although the polls have Haslam in a double-digit lead, my sense is that Zach has gained in recent weeks and it remains to be seen whether or not he can pass Haslam, who in my view is a very strong candidate. Should Wamp win the nomination and the election, what kind of leadership do I think he would provide? I will try to answer that question in this column.

Wamp’s experience for the past 16 years has been as a legislator and a dealmaker. Obviously, there is nothing wrong with either, and while I have not agreed with all of Zach’s votes (his support for the ill-conceived TARP comes to mind, although I suspect he would like to have back that vote), I do think that his overall voting record has been positive and certainly better than what we have seen from the current Congressional leadership.

However, as governor, Zach cannot legislate; he must be an administrator, and an administrator that is effective enough not only to deal with executive branch agencies, but also to work with the legislature. I’m not sure which job is more difficult, to be honest, but having spent almost all of his political life as an elected representative, I am sure that Zach has insights into dealing with the members of the Tennessee General Assembly.

There is one thing that Wamp cannot do: engage in deficit spending. Unlike the federal government, which has been running deficits for years, states and localities must balance their budgets or go broke. They cannot borrow their way out of such a situation, and they certainly cannot print money.

Because the policies of the Obama administration are going to guarantee that the U.S. economy will be in the tank for a long time, whoever becomes the next governor of Tennessee is going to be dealing with budget crises, and that also means that the main newspapers and a lot of other “progressives” are going to demand a state income tax. That is guaranteed.

Interestingly, many of the states with the worst budget problems also have high income tax rates, which serve to encourage the legislatures (and governors) to spend beyond their means. So, while I know that there will be the pressure to enact an income tax, nonetheless Tennesseeans will be better off without one, and I hope that either Zach or Haslam remembers that simple truth.

So, what kind of governor will Zach be if he wins the election? I believe that he has too much energy and too much political experience to be a failure. In fact, I believe that Wamp, if elected, will be a highly effective governor and in a few years, people will be throwing his name around for the Republican nomination for president.

Since I have not talked to Zach in many years, I have no idea if that is his goal: to be president of the United States. If he wishes to go that route, certainly he will have a better shot as governor of Tennessee than as a representative or even a senator. But if he wants to be president, he first needs to win the primary, which means he has to come from behind to do it.

I don’t have a crystal ball, and while I follow the news in Tennessee more than I follow the news in Maryland, nonetheless I cannot make a prediction. Zach is an excellent campaigner, a good stump speaker, and is very charismatic, especially in person. Whether or not that makes up for the financial advantages that Haslam enjoys, plus Haslam’s connections across the state, is something that the voters will decide.